President Helps Economy?

Goal

It remains to witness whether the president’s actions and those of his administration help or develop the United State’s domestic and foreign trade opportunities.  Current statistics in reference from the Trump Administration do point out a higher value on the dollar, low unemployment, and other observations to be proud of.  Later analysis, will hopefully assess which of these observations are due to his administration and their actions, or the one prior.

Recent and Relevant Actions

Executive Order 13777 asks many agencies to evaluate existing regulations and make recommendations in regards to repeal, replace, or modify in accordance to applicable law.

National Council for the American Worker is to develop a national strategy to train workers for high-demand industries.  So far 23 companies have pledged opportunities for American workers.  The group will listen to voices from academic, labor, private, public and non-profit sector participants to improve opportunities for American employment.  The Council has till February 2019, to develop and publish a strategy.

North American Free-Trade Agreement may not see recision, but is in the middle of negotiation for specific revisions.  Whether or not the revisions will lead to a better deal, the administration is not wrong.  Since 2002 the U.S. holds deficits with Mexico, and no less than 37 billion deficit for every year except 4 since 1985.  Every year, the volume of exports and imports between the two countries saw significant increase since 1994.  Since 1985, the United States has had varying deficits with Canada.  After the signing of NAFTA, exports and imports amounts increased between the two countries.  Deficits lead to consolidation of United States funds outside of the country.

Impacts

The president promises to review and investigate anti-competitive actions from certain countries.  Although, the president does recommend for the United State’s Trade Representative and International Trade Commission (ITC) to conduct investigations even though any real progress is slow, and shifting.  Although the ITC can impose Antidumping (AD), Countervailing (CV), Less Than Fair Value (LTFV), cease desist orders and duties; the impositions can easily reverse with file of certain petition from the respondents.  Although the investigation might result in an action, it may not stick long enough to make an impact, change agreements, or policy between two countries.

The actions also increase prices of imports, many large retail participants depend on imports of raw materials.

Additionally American Manufacturing will increase the price of items, as American human labor has a high cost due to taxes, insurances, minimum wages, and other labor market beneficiary programs.  Additionally, a high value dollar will not be good for international trade as it makes the price of our items higher and expensive to what some competition can achieve.

Automation is no longer an issue with the majority of it’s impact on United States participating labor force, but now of an international trade concern.  China is also making it’s way towards automation of frontier technology industries, and doing so with a low value currency.  Automating Frontier technologies will Increase the opportunity in the international market for China, and make it difficult for non automated operations to compete.

American goods either need:

American Human supported manufacturing –

  • highest cost,
  • bad international trade position in terms of competition with advanced automation manufacturing capabilities.

Foreign undeveloped economy supported manufacturing –

  • low cost,
  • bad international trade position in terms of competition with advanced automation manufacturing capabilities.

American Automation Manufacturing –

  • lowest cost,
  • consolidation of natural resource control
  • Human labor market risk
  • best international trade position in regards to competition

From Closed to Open International Trade

The Trump Administration is for a closed domestic economy similar to that seen in isolationism during the 1920’s.

Open trade policies encourage global participation, and help the United States foster good will, develop global cooperation.  Global cooperation opens international trade, and low/no duties allow for low prices for retailers in the United States.  Dependence on foreign manufacturing; outsources resource consumption, environmental impacts, and consolidation of manufacture value which can help develop foreign economies.  Foreign relations can improve with beneficial trade agreements.  Any policies that decentivize international trade can deteriorate goodwill from beneficial trade agreements (dependent if goodwill is a result only from beneficial trade agreement).

Closing off access to raw materials, and advanced equipment encourages a development of domestic manufacturing.  The Unites States has high human labor costs, so a domestic manufacturing effort may increase prices.  The increasing minimum wages, workplace quality requirements, and international automation capabilities; may necessitate a domestic manufacture sector dependent on automation.

Other Non-Economic Policies During Administration

Some concerns are raised as the Trump Administration has repealed many previous regulations that protect consumer welfare.

Change or Repeal of Response Regulations in 2008, in place to limit exchange of securities similar to those behind the 2008 market crash.

Repeal of Regulations in place to limit fracking of United States oil resources.

Repeal of Gainful Employment Policy in place to help students make informed decisions regarding previous students success in repayment of loans.

 

 

 

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